Can BRICS replace the West?

It has been over 200 years, and it’s time for the Old Age economy to be revitalized.

While it is still early to determine the outcome, BRICS continues to maintain its momentum. Economies in the Global South are performing well, with GDP growth consistently outpacing that of Western countries. Notably, the BRICS nations represent 47% of the global population, giving them a significant demographic advantage. The middle class in these regions is growing rapidly, which is driving an increased demand for consumer goods.

So, when might BRICS overtake the West?

It may take another 30 to 50 years, but the momentum is clearly in place. The West appears to be at its peak, and as a result, GDP growth is stagnating. For instance, the U.S. economy experienced contraction in GDP growth this quarter, driving the average GDP growth for the West down to about 0 to 2%. In contrast, the Global South is thriving, with an average GDP growth range of 3% to 6%, and some individual economies exceeding those figures. Asia and Africa, in particular, are leading this growth trend, which may continue for the foreseeable future.

Furthermore, people in the Global South, particularly those in BRICS nations, are generally optimistic about their futures. They work harder, study diligently, and are confident that their circumstances will improve. This unwavering belief empowers individuals to strive for a better life, enhancing the potential for improved economic conditions in their countries.

The middle class in the Global South is expanding rapidly, especially in China and India, resulting in greater demand for quality consumer goods. As the middle class grows, the gap between demand and supply is narrowing each year, necessitating the establishment of more businesses, factories, logistics systems, and other manufacturing structures to meet this demand. If demand surpasses supply, it may lead to inflation in goods and services, which could negatively impact the middle class. However, Africa, Asia, and Latin America possess the capacity to develop manufacturing systems that cater to the needs of the growing middle class. The creation of more jobs will also foster the rise of additional middle-class consumers, generating further demand for various goods and services.

Food security is another critical area of focus for BRICS. The organization is committed to ensuring that the middle class can afford adequate and reasonably priced food, allowing them to save more than they spend. This initiative is particularly important as major Fortune 500 food companies attempt to monopolize the food industry; BRICS is working to counteract that trend.

In terms of raw materials, BRICS is focused on controlling resources that account for 60% to 90% of the world's total supply. Given the vast landmass of the Global South, it should be able to harness more raw materials than the West. To achieve this, it is crucial that wealth generated from these resources benefits the Global South, rather than being funneled to the West. Historically, Western countries have controlled the extraction and profits from the Global South's resources through practices like mining, but this needs reform. The Global South has the right to benefit from its land and resources. The example of blood diamonds highlights past injustices where the West maintained control, but now the African Union is actively working to change that narrative. Child labor in mining is gradually declining as more children gain access to education.

We must consider the financial aspect known as "de-dollarization." The BRICS nations are taking decisive steps to counter the weaponization of the U.S. dollar, which has resulted in sanctions primarily affecting the Global South. In response, BRICS is striving to diminish the dollar's dominance in the international financial system; they are working toward alternatives to the SWIFT system, which is heavily reliant on the dollar for international transactions. An increasing number of transactions are now being conducted in Yuan, and this trend is steadily progressing.

What about Development Banks? While the Western world relies on the World Bank and the IMF for global development financing, the BRICS nations have established the New Development Bank (NDB). The NDB is currently making strides in promoting financial development for developing countries, but it is still in its early stages. It will take time for its reputation to grow, as it does not yet have the popularity of the World Bank or the IMF. One notable aspect of the NDB is its willingness to lend money to developing countries without imposing significant constraints. The interest rates are relatively low, and it does not restrict lending based on which countries it will support.

Is BRICS prioritizing military development? No, it is not. The focus of BRICS is on advancing the interests of the Global South, not on military expansion. One of BRICS's key priorities is ensuring that military expenditures do not become part of its initiatives. The organization is not aimed at engaging in military conflicts or opposing NATO and other military alliances, despite ongoing tensions, such as those seen in Israel with Gaza and Iran.

So, can BRICS help address global poverty? Absolutely. That is one of BRICS's main objectives. The organization is committed to alleviating poverty worldwide. China has already eradicated absolute poverty within its borders, and it is now working to help other developing countries achieve similar success. India and Brazil are also making significant progress in this area. BRICS is focused on lifting the economic conditions in Asia, Africa, and Latin America and fostering the growth of a more robust middle class. In doing so, BRICS aims to become a formidable force in global affairs.

BRICS is continually improving its development goals. In the next thirty years, it could potentially rival the West as its economy continues to grow. The goal of BRICS is not to counter the West militarily but to ensure that the Global South has a voice in global matters. BRICS serves as that voice, aiding the Global South in its growth and development, and it is making notable progress in this respect. As the Global South advances economically, BRICS will become stronger than ever.

For the Global South to solve its challenges, unity is essential. BRICS aims to facilitate that unity. We must support its progression, as the world is evolving for the better, largely due to the contributions of BRICS.

For more insights into geopolitics, read my book titled “The Book of One.” For additional information, please visit my website at www.booksofone.com. If you have any questions, feel free to comment or email me at carlosrelanojr@booksofone.com.