Can the United States contain China?

The United States has been attempting to contain China for years. Is it already too late?

Since the first Trump Administration, the United States has made efforts to contain China, but these efforts have not been particularly successful. Why? China is simply too large. The Biden Administration attempted similar strategies, but they also fell short. Now that the second Trump Administration is back, can they successfully contain China? It seems unlikely; China continues to grow in size and influence.

One key factor is China's economy. It has a nominal GDP of $19.2 trillion, making it the second-largest economy in the world, and a Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) of $35.3 trillion, the highest globally. The country is projected to see an annual GDP growth of 5% in 2024. Additionally, China remains a manufacturing powerhouse, larger than the next nine biggest manufacturing countries combined. It is the largest trading partner for over 120 countries worldwide. Furthermore, China’s military spending exceeds $250 billion annually. Most significantly, the country's population is vast, with more than 1.4 billion people, 500 million of whom are part of the middle class.

Given these factors, it seems that China cannot be contained. Experts believe that containment could have been possible in the 1990s or early 2000s when China's economy was still small. However, few anticipated the rapid growth it would experience—sometimes even reaching double-digit growth rates. This unprecedented economic expansion has broken records and caught the United States off guard. By the late 2010s, when the U.S. did begin to respond, it was arguably too late to contain China's rise.

So, what should the United States do now?

The U.S. needs to seek a compromise. China is simply too large to be contained without significant consequences. While it is possible to attempt containment, doing so would likely require conflict. It’s important to note that China possesses over 500 nuclear warheads. War is not a favorable option, and personally, I am a pacifist—I do not advocate for conflict.

The positive aspect of China's growth is that it has largely been achieved peacefully; the last time China engaged in war was in 1979. Additionally, through its Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), China has invested around a trillion dollars in global development. It has also made significant strides in improving the welfare of its citizens, having eradicated extreme poverty by 2021 and lifting about 800 million people out of poverty. The primary challenges China faces involve Taiwan and the South China Sea. However, these disputes could potentially be resolved through cooperation among all parties involved, such as Vietnam, the Philippines, Indonesia, Malaysia, and Brunei. Unfortunately, progress has not yet been made in these areas.

These issues are the most pressing ones that could lead to conflict. Nevertheless, China believes they can be resolved. The United States, however, remains wary of China’s rise and continues to seek ways to contain it. The Trump Administration's views on China could further complicate matters, as many officials there have negative sentiments towards the country. I sincerely hope they will not resort to military conflict.

In conclusion, China cannot be contained; it is simply too large. The United States must seek a compromise and work towards peaceful collaboration with China. Initiating a new Cold War would be highly risky. It's important for the U.S. to recognize that we now live in a multipolar world. While China may be the most prominent power at the moment, other countries, such as India, Brazil, and Russia, are also rising. Engaging in conflicts with multiple nations would prove extremely challenging.

For more about geopolitics, read my book titled “The Book of One.” For additional information, check my website at www.booksofone.com.

If you have any questions or suggestions, please feel free to comment or email me at carlosrelanojr@booksofone.com.