Will the United States and China get along?

The tension between the United States and China, which began over a decade ago, shows no signs of abating. When will it come to an end?

The conflict started during Barack Obama's second term. Initially, the friction between the two countries was relatively mild, marked only by some tariffs and restrictions imposed on China by the Obama administration. However, things escalated with the arrival of the Trump administration.

The Trump administration intensified the tensions by implementing additional tariffs, sanctions, and various restrictions against China. This caught China off guard, as they were unprepared for the severity of the situation. Ultimately, they conceded, and the United States emerged victorious in the Trade War, prompting China to negotiate terms that severely impacted their trade relationship with the U.S.

In response to this setback, China recognized the need to diversify its trade and reduce reliance on the U.S. and Europe. They began to open trade and investment opportunities with other regions, including Asia, Africa, and Latin America. The Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) facilitated these efforts, making trade and investments more efficient. As a result, exports from China to the United States now account for only 16% of China's overall trade—a significant but manageable figure.

When the Biden administration took office, it continued the confrontational stance toward China, imposing sanctions across various sectors, including trade and technology. Notably, there was a 100% tariff on Chinese electric vehicles (EVs). Biden made it clear that he did not want China to prosper during his administration, which posed another significant challenge for the country.

Then came the second Trump administration, which immediately reignited a Trade War, not only with China but with the rest of the world. This caught many off guard, but China was prepared and did not retreat. They understood they had the resources to succeed, and after a brief period, the Trump administration conceded and sought to negotiate. However, China anticipated that the U.S. would return with even stricter restrictions and began preparing accordingly.

The enduring tensions between the U.S. and China raise the question: can they ever reach a compromise?

Under the Trump administration, that's unlikely. They believe they have the upper hand and will continue to fight for victory in the trade war. The administration includes many officials who view China's rise as a threat and advocate for policies that challenge its growing influence. Consequently, their stance against China is unlikely to change.

What about the next administration?

That's problematic as well. Democrats also harbor reservations about China. Both Republicans and Democrats see China as a threat and are reluctant to alter their positions. Consequently, they often communicate negative perceptions about China to the American public, further fueling disdain.

Why do both parties dislike China?

Both parties believe that China poses a risk to the United States and its citizens. They fear that China's rise could lead to the United States’ decline and alter its role on the world stage. Furthermore, they view China's increased military spending, which is growing annually by 5% to 7%, as a direct threat. What they may not realize is that China is following Sun Tzu’s *Art of War* principles—preparing thoroughly for self-defense and ensuring they have the necessary arsenal and personnel to confront any potential conflict. This is precisely what China is doing.

Can we change their minds?

That’s a question I cannot definitively answer. It’s important to note that both major political parties in the U.S. have grown increasingly critical of China. This sentiment began during the first Trump Administration. The question now is whether they will change their minds after a potential second Trump Administration. I hope they do, as we are currently on the brink of a second Cold War, which we want to avoid. The world would be very different if a second Cold War were to occur.

So, what is my final thought?

China is not a threat to the United States or the world. It never was. The perception of China as a threat arises solely because its economy and military capabilities are surpassing those of the United States, which the U.S. views as a threat. What I aim to demonstrate is that if the United States gives China a chance, we will see a different China. I believe that both countries could enjoy decreased tensions if this happens, potentially leading to a better world. However, this may not be feasible under the current Trump Administration, which is characterized by a strong anti-China stance.

There could be a change of heart if the United States realizes that we now live in a multipolar world. This realization may occur if two or three other countries rise to the same level as China and the United States. Currently, Europe is a regional bloc, not a singular country. India is a potential candidate, but I hope its tensions with China can be reduced. The socioeconomic gap in India is significant, and this needs to be addressed, although the economy is growing rapidly. Brazil is another candidate, though it is currently facing a middle-income trap. Indonesia also has potential, but its GDP is less than $1.4 trillion. Russia is a contender as well, but it is presently engaged in the war in Ukraine. However, if that war ends, it could provide a significant boost to Russia's economy, which already has a GDP (Purchasing Power Parity) of more than $6 trillion.

If these countries rise to be on par with China, the United States may feel overwhelmed and choose to back down, potentially resulting in a reduced military budget—nearly $1 trillion by 2026.

So, what is my goal?

My goal is to reduce global tensions. If the world works together, we can move toward a harmonious society. A unified world could collaborate for peace and prosperity. Who knows, we might even create spaceships capable of reaching other stars. Wouldn’t that be exciting? I apologize for my enthusiasm; I am a technology geek.